ORBTL.

LAB 01 / MODEL REGRESSION DETECTOR / ACTIVE

CHANGE.
MEASURE.
CATCH.

A prompt change.
A measurable regression.

Same eight cases. Same pinned models. Same T4 runtime. The baseline classifies seven correctly; the intentionally weakened candidate classifies two.

Inspect recorded results ↓

Real inference · synthetic fixture · captured September 28, 2026

87.5%baseline accuracy
25%candidate accuracy
62.5 ppaccuracy drop
FAILregression gate

PROBE V2 / OBSERVED RESULTS

Six cases regressed.

Critical failure starts above an eight-percentage-point accuracy drop. This run exceeds that threshold. Invalid responses count as quality failures; missing execution evidence stays visible.

Eight AI-authored cases, two per category. Separate Qwen summary judge; scores are advisory.
MeasurementBaselineCandidate
Correct classifications7 / 82 / 8
Accuracy87.5%25%
Invalid responses00
Execution errors / missing0 / 00 / 0
Valid summary judgments8 / 88 / 8
Advisory summary score4.75 / 54.875 / 5

Regressions: fixture-01, fixture-02, fixture-03, fixture-05, fixture-06, fixture-07.

RUN RECORD / KEEP THE FIRST ATTEMPT

The first result mattered.

01 / PRESERVED PROBE V1

A misleading baseline.

The original baseline returned prose or fenced JSON for all eight cases. Strict validation rejected every response. Accuracy was 0%; the candidate scored 25%, so the relative gate returned PASS.

A passing comparison does not establish a useful baseline. Those original outputs remain preserved.

02 / FRESH PROBE V2

Make the contract explicit.

A new versioned baseline prompt specified an exact JSON shape. Both arms were captured in a fresh session with unchanged model revisions. All responses were valid; accuracy dropped from 87.5% to 25%.

The evidence was finalized before exporting the report. Saved Kaggle version 2 retains both sessions.

REPRODUCIBILITY / SCOPE

Inspect the boundaries.

This is real model inference on a small synthetic fixture, not a human-reviewed gold evaluation or a general model-quality benchmark. Summary judgments have not been calibrated against human ratings.

Classifier
Qwen2.5-1.5B-Instruct · 989aa7980e4cf806f80c7fef2b1adb7bc71aa306
Summary judge
Qwen2.5-3B-Instruct · aa8e72537993ba99e69dfaafa59ed015b17504d1
Runtime
Kaggle Tesla T4 · Python 3.12.13 · Torch 2.10.0+cu128 · Transformers 4.57.6
Prompts
support-json-v2 → support-demo-weakened

This page records observed metrics. Raw bundles are saved in the private Kaggle notebook; a local download has not been verified. Human gold review, full-dataset capture, Databricks acceptance, and Space publication remain pending.